Nuclear verdict risk checklist for bodily injury claims

What is a nuclear verdict?

A nuclear verdict is a jury award of $10 million or more. Awards above $100 million are called thermonuclear verdicts.¹³

Marathon Strategies' counts cover corporate defendants and reflect the jury's award, not later reductions or reversals.¹³ In 2024 nuclear verdicts totaled $31.3 billion, so 2025 had more verdicts but a lower total.^{13, 1}

Why nuclear verdicts keep rising

Social inflation: legal and societal trends that push claim costs up faster than economic inflation, from jury attitudes to plaintiff tactics and litigation funding.

• Social inflation. Swiss Re estimates it increased U.S. liability claims by 57% over the past decade, peaking at 7% a year in 2023.⁸ Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society put the increase in liability losses over the past decade at $231.6 billion to $281.2 billion, from legal system abuse and inflation combined.¹⁵
• Trucking. From 2010 to 2018, verdict awards in trucking cases grew 51.7% a year, against 1.7% inflation.⁵
• The reptile theory. A plaintiff strategy, first described in 2009, that shifts jurors from sympathy with the victim to anger at the defendant.⁸
• Anchoring. Jurors tend to anchor awards to the numbers they hear, so counsel ask for very large figures early and often.^8,16
• Letters of protection. Treatment paid from any future settlement can put inflated medical bills in front of a jury.⁴
• Litigation funding. Third-party funders who finance a lawsuit in exchange for part of the recovery are linked to higher awards and longer cases.^17,8

What claims teams can do early

Find the few files that matter, investigate them early and fully, and keep the evaluation, reserves and responses current. Most of that work has to happen in the first months.

1. Respond fast. Keep a response plan and retain counsel quickly to preserve evidence, including canvassing for witnesses and third-party cameras.²
2. Front-load the investigation. Claims leaders recommend completing most of it within six months and revisiting deadlines every 30 days.⁶
3. Triage with data. Fewer than 1% of claims drive the most severe outcomes, so route them into specialized workflows.¹⁸
4. Make realistic early offers. Push likely-liability claims toward early settlement, and avoid lowball offers.^2,6
5. Handle time-limited demands by the book. Notify the insured, confirm receipt, ask for clarification in writing and document everything.⁹
6. Prepare for trial early. Present reasonable award values, run mock juries earlier and challenge reptile tactics with motions in limine.^8,2

Time-limited demands: three state rules to know

A time-limited demand is an offer to settle within the policy limits that expires on a set deadline. Missing or mishandling one can open the insurer to liability above the limits.⁹

Rules change often. Georgia amended its statute in 2021 and 2024, so confirm the current version with coverage counsel.¹⁹

Judicial Hellholes 2025–2026

The American Tort Reform Foundation's 2025–2026 list ranks Los Angeles, New York City and South Carolina asbestos litigation as the top three.⁷

1. Los Angeles
2. New York City
3. South Carolina asbestos litigation
4. Louisiana coastal litigation
5. Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas
6. St. Louis
7. Cook, Madison and St. Clair Counties, Illinois
8. King County and the Washington Supreme Court

The report is published by a business-backed advocacy group, so use it as one input alongside local counsel's verdict history.

How the checklist scores a file

Each sign carries a weight of 1 to 3, for a maximum of 36. The total sets the risk level, and two rules can raise it.

• A time-limited or policy-limits demand always sets the level to at least Elevated, because the deadline cannot wait.
• A catastrophic injury together with a plaintiff-friendly venue or a safety violation sets the level to High.